Barocas Research Group 
Carnivore ecology in dynamic landscapes  

The Hula Valley in northern Israel is a globally recognized wetland ecosystem that represents a unique convergence of rich biodiversity and intensive human activity. Our project approaches this landscape as a dynamic "Social-Ecological System," investigating how nature and human management interact within a relatively small geographic area. Because the valley has been subject to comprehensive ecological monitoring for nearly two decades, it offers a rare, real-world opportunity to study how human interventions - such as seasonal crane feeding, nutria culling, and hydrological manipulation - interact with natural forces to shape the environment.

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Our primary research direction focuses on mapping trophic cascades, the ecological ripples that propagate through food webs when specific species or environmental factors are altered. We are examining complex feedback loops, such as how tourism infrastructure shifts predator behavior or how water-level management impacts nesting bird communities. To achieve this, we are leveraging an extensive data archive spanning 2002 to 2018, integrating records of climate, vegetation, and wildlife with data on human activities. We utilize advanced statistical methods, alongside GIS spatial modeling to connect aquatic and terrestrial datasets and identify deep ecological patterns.

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Beyond understanding historical trends, this project aims to develop predictive tools for the future stewardship of the Hula Valley. We are using our models to run scenario simulations, forecasting how potential changes in management strategies - like altering water regulations or cessation of feeding programs - might impact biodiversity outcomes. These findings are designed to be actionable, providing key stakeholders such as the Hula Research Center the KKL and the Israel Nature and Parks Authority with the scientific insights needed for informed, adaptive management. We ultimately aim to contribut to the broader science of managing human-modified wetlands worldwide.